Research Fellow

Room 314
Edward Ford Building (A27)
The University of Sydney
NSW 2006

Phone: +61 2 9036 7138
Fax: +61 2 9351 7420

http://www.health.usyd.edu.au/heconomics/

Research Interests

Dr Alison Hayes is a research fellow at the School of Public Health working on simulation models of type 2 diabetes - with the aim of predicting both patient outcomes and health economic outcomes. She has over twenty years experience in simulation modelling in a variety of fields and has a strong interest in applying modelling to 'real world' problems. She has also worked as a statistician in clinical trials and has experience in the analysis and manipulation of large datasets. In addition to modelling, her current research interests include the prognostic value of health related quality of life data, inequalities in health, and obesity.

Current research projects

Development and validation of risk tables for quantifying life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes

P Clarke, T Davis, A Hayes

The major outcome of this project is the development of easy to use tables to quantify life expectancy of people with diabetes based on their individual risk profile. There is now compelling evidence concerning the relationship between risk factors such as blood pressure and life expectancy. This project will use a computer simulation model that has been adapted to Australia in order to calculate life expectancy for people with diabetes based on their current levels of common risk factors. The tables will be useful way of understanding the potential benefits of improving diabetes control and may be used to inform treatment guidelines.

Development and validation of an Australian Diabetes Health Policy Simulation Model

P Clarke, A Gray, T Davis, A Patel , A Hayes (NHMRC Project Grant 512463)

The aim of this project is to develop a model that can be used to simulate the progression of type 2 diabetes and its complications and to validate this model using patient level data from Australia and overseas. We propose to adapt the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes (UKPDS) Outcomes Model for use in Australia through the inclusion of supplementary equations for modelling mortality following major complications of diabetes. These additional equations will be estimated using a large linked administrative data set from Western Australia which is the largest available dataset of people with type 2 diabetes in Australia. A second aim is to apply this model to assess the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of interventions to improve the management of the disease.

Publications